Kansas City Royals Prospectus 2012

We’re Royals fans, we’re conditioned to losing, conditioned to looking forward 3 years to any real gratification because that’s when fill-in-the-blank future star (Damon, Beltran, Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer) gets here and everything will be cool.

So, excuse us if we’re not quite sure how to handle our current state of affairs. We’d like to act as if we’ve been here before, but most of us haven’t. The Kansas City Royals should be decent in 2012. In fact, a closer look at the numbers will show that they were actually pretty decent in 2011.

We’ve seen signs of promise before. In 2003, we finished 83-79 then were picked to win the AL Central in 2004 by several publications. We lost 104 games in 2004. In 2008, they finished 77-85, but then resorted to their losing ways again in 2009. Excluding those two years, the 2011 Royals will finish with their best record (currently 70-89) since 1994.

There’s good reason to believe that unlike the 2003 and 2008 teams, this team is set to improve again in 2012. The question remains, how much? Before we print 2012 playoff tickets, we need to get the bad news out of the way. There are some factors that were positives for ’11 Royals that will not be there next year.

Reasons the Royals will decline in 2012:
· Career Years
o The outfield had one (Gordon may not seem likely to regress, but bear in mind that he’s finishing off what Royalsreview calculated to be the 2nd best season ever by a Royals outfielder – Beltran ’03). We all expected this from Alex Gordon, but even if he continues to fulfill our lofty expectations for him, this was a phenomenal year.

o Francoeur has teased other fanbases with his ability before, but bear in mind that every fanbase he has ever played for hates his guts. He’s signed for 2 more years (quite handsomely) at which time we expect that Wil Myers (the next great Royals prospect) will be ready to take over right field. I would take Francoeur’s 2011 for the next 2 years in a heartbeat, meaning that I consider his downside to be much greater than his upside. I’m not saying he’ll disappoint, I’m saying it’s more likely that he’ll underperform his contract than overperform it, which is why it’s a cause for concern.

o Melky Cabrera is the player who screams regression to the mean. An OPS of .807 when his previous high was .752 and his 2010 was .671 qualifies for a contract year. I thought the Giants made a mistake trading the farm for Carlos Beltran when Melky Cabrera (younger, much cheaper, less injury-prone) was sitting by the phone. That was before Melky’s big finish. He now has 3 games to collect his 200th hit. His previous high – 149. All this being said, Gordon and Cabrera are the same age: 27. The only difference is the amount of hype they generated early in their careers. If Gordon’s just reaching his peak where we expect (hope) he will stay, could Melky be the same? If so, Dayton Moore who has him under club control for another year pulled off a steal. As it is, Melky’s in a good spot because his actual 2011 was probably the peak upside of the guy waiting behind him (Lorenzo Cain) and Bubba Starling, the centerfielder of the future is 4-5 years away. Also, next year is his true contract year so his motivation to perform should increase if anything.

· The Bullpen
o The Royals had an amazing bullpen in 2011. I’m not saying they were good, they were, but really more amazing given the amount of innings they pitched, the runners they inherited and the youth (they’re all rookies). Given the amount of hype that the Royals’ farm system generated this past offseason, this shouldn’t have been a total surprise except that none of these guys were really part of that group. These were guys ranked as their 11th – 30th best prospects. Aaron Crow wasn’t a top 10 prospect for the Royals and ended up making the All-Star team. Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Crow were lights out. Wood, Collins and Adcock were above average. Jeffress still has a ton of potential. The cause for concern is that these guys were so amazing that it hardly seems possible that they can do it again. Furthermore, it seems likely that 1-2 of them will be converted to starters while Soria’s status and future remains unclear. However, the fact that the Royals have a lot of live arms is a good thing whether they start or relieve. I’m just skeptical that Greg Holland suddenly became Mariano Rivera.

· Injuries
o The Royals didn’t really have any. Bruce Chen missed 7 starts. Jason Kendall was addition by subtraction. That’s about it for big injuries. That’s unusual. To have 6 positions in the lineup filled automatically with above-average results (post-Hosmer call-up, perhaps too kind in Escobar’s case) is a luxury that rarely happens (see 2010 Chiefs vs. 2011 Chiefs for evidence of this). Ned Yost’s job was not particularly difficult this year. I’d add that Salvador Perez’s phenomenal and surprising call-up run has cemented him as the 7th guy who you can write in pen. Moustakas’ late run should cement him as the 8th so it’s really a matter of whether you believe Giavotella is the answer at 2nd for you to complete the lineup for the entire year. Again, regression to the mean says that the Royals should expect at least one of these guys to miss significant time next year. Lorenzo Cain can fill in as the 4th outfielder just fine (we hope), but infield back-up could come in the form of Chris Getz (no comment needed).
To stop here would overly pessimistic, indeed the Royals reasons for optimism outweigh the factors above so here goes:

Reasons the Royals will contend in 2012:

· Pythagorean Expectation
o This term is supposed to make my prognostications sound brainy and new-age, but as Moneyball just opened in theaters, I fear that the Sabermetrically-inclined will soon be joined by a host of bandwagon-jumpers. Here’s the bottom line: By looking at the Royals’ (or any team’s) runs scored and runs allowed, you can estimate how many wins they would be expected to win. The Royals have been unlucky to the tune of winning 7 fewer games than they would be expected to win. Only the Padres have been more unfortunate (9 games). This may not seem significant given that they currently trail the Detroit Tigers by 22 games until you see that the Tigers have actually been very lucky, outperforming their expected win total by 5 games. Therefore, if you take expected wins, the Tiger’s lead in the division shrinks to 10 games and that’s only if they both have average luck. Contrary to popular belief, teams aren’t consistently lucky or unlucky. The 2003 Royals would win 2 one-run games, then lose 13-1. Good teams don’t do that. We heard it all year in 2003 even though we didn’t want to. Now the news is good, we were unlucky in 2011 and should expect that that will change. So, with average luck, we have a 10-game deficit to shrink, but if we were to, say, reverse our luck with Detroit’s, that’s a 24-game swing and the division is ours (I know I’m omitting 3 other teams from the discussion, the Twins are lucky to have won 61 games. Cleveland and Chicago both have slightly worse run differentials than KC meaning that they’ve also been lucky).

· Youth
o Just because you’re young doesn’t mean you automatically get better. 15 years of infant teams in KC should’ve taught us that. However, this team is both young and talented. There is upside potential even though the youth had a phenomenal year. Let's go player-by-player in the field as we’ll cover the pitchers elsewhere:

§ Eric Hosmer-Best rookie season and most potential since Carlos Beltran, good since Day 1, projects to be one of the 10 best hitters in the American League for about the next 20 years. This is the kind of player you build around. For 2011, conventional wisdom says he’ll improve, but sophomore slumps are common. With his plate approach, I’m saying our first base stats for 2012 will be better than 2011 if for no other reason than the Kila Monster will not be manning the bag for 2 months. I actually think he’ll be an All-Star, he’s that good.

§ Johnny Giavotella-Somewhat disappointing half season in that he’s currently only hitting .240, but at least he’s not Chris Getz. There are concerns that Giavotella won’t play even decent defense at 2nd, but he’s hit at every level. There’s no reason to think he won’t improve in 2012.
§ Alcides Escobar-Started cold as ice then was red hot, then cooled off to his current .250 pace. He’s shown signs of “getting it” and his defense continues to amaze. Defense isn’t as finicky as hitting so I expect the defense to stay and offense to improve slightly if only because he won’t hit .220 for 3 months. If he’s a .270 hitter next year, he should be an All-Star. If.

§ Mike Moustakas-People surprised by his slow start don’t follow the minor leagues. Moose has been a slow starter at every level and the majors was no exception. His hot streak and power streak to close the season made everyone feel good and points to a strong future. What we’re lacking is that brute power (rates better than Hosmer) that we’ve been hearing about. He did what we expected, mostly sucked, for several months before turning it on. He’s the best candidate to improve dramatically in 2012.

§ Salvador Perez-If you were surprised by Perez’s hot start (currently hitting .328) then you’re not alone. He projected to a borderline starter at best in the majors. Catcher was viewed as the lone weak position in the Royals’ minor league system. The fact that he has an absolute cannon for an arm and is only 21 years old should excite everyone. If he avoids a massive drop-off in Year 2, this is a huge win for the Royals and may make up a little for the bad years by John Lamb (injury), Mike Montgomery (control) and Wil Myers (injury). Expect a regression, but he should be the everyday starter and we didn’t have a projected everyday starter at catcher until a month ago.

· Starting Pitching
o Ah yes, this much maligned unit probably kept the Royals from contending in 2011 let alone 2012. They had a top-5 bullpen, but were 12th in the American League in ERA. Well, the good news is that things are going to get better. I don’t know how, but teams typically don’t stay this unbalanced. The Royals’ offense, defense and bullpen are contender-worthy today. However, their starting pitching improved dramatically in the 2nd half. How did they do it?

§ Felipe Paulino-The rare Royals starter who can actually strike out batters. He always had great stuff, but had never harnessed his control. Now he has and the Royals have a #3/#4 starter that they got for nothing.

§ Luke Hochevar-The former #1 overall pick is finally pitching like a big leaguer. He’s not a #1 or #2 starter, but his second half looked like a #3.

§ Danny Duffy-He struggled with a 4-8 record and a plus-5 ERA. That’s ok, he was expected to and the good news is his stuff delivers. He does strike people out, but he doesn’t do it efficiently. His pitch counts per inning were astronomical. He has to work this out, but he could be a #2 starter when he does. Right now, he’s a #4.

§ Bruce Chen-True, he did improve as the year went along including a very satisfying mastery of the White Sox, but his best contribution to the 2nd half was not being injured as he was in the 1st half. Just by him being himself, he’s not Vin Mazzaro and that’s worth a lot. Chen has been the Royals best pitcher the past 2 seasons (Greinke mailed in 2010) and although he doesn’t strike many out, he wins games. Because he doesn’t fit the profile of a #1 or #2 starter (and because he looks so unassuming), people discount him. I, for one, would be thrilled to bring Chen back for $3M in 2012. I don’t think you win a playoff series with him as your #1/#2, but you can absolutely win a division title with him in your rotation especially if it’s the AL Central.

o For the Royals to contend in 2012, Paulino and Hochevar have to retain their 2011 2nd half form (reasonable to expect), Duffy has to make “the leap” (ERA in low 4’s, 150+ innings) and that leaves 2 open spots. Chen could fill one, which seems like a smart move. The Royals could “discover” a quality starter like Paulino (Luis Mendoza, Player TBD), they could convert one (Aaron Crow, Greg Holland), they could promote one (Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, Jake Odorizzi), they could sign one (C.J. Wilson, Player TBD) or they could trade for one (James Shields has been mentioned). If they want to contend in 2012, they would need at least one big acquisition and a converted reliever or Chen. If they want to contend in 2013, they should look to bring Montgomery and Odorizzi up mid-year.